In May this year, Nathan Gray noticed his phone buzzing. His cousin was trying to reach him.

When he picked up the FaceTime call, he saw the serious look on his cousin's face and knew something was wrong. "I just had this feeling," he said.

Gray's cousin told him that his older brother, Ashton Gray, 34, had died by suicide while awaiting trial in Toronto South Detention Centre, a provincial jail in Etobicoke. 

"I dropped the phone and started crying," he said. "I was shocked, like, why the hell my brother?" 

Gray's suicide in custody sent shockwaves through his family and those who provided him with support for mental health and addictions issues they say had plagued him throughout his adult life and were sparked by a traumatic childhood characterized by abuse in group homes.

His death is part of a disturbing trend in the province, where deaths in custody have increased over the last decade, according to data published by the province and advocacy organizations. Academics and advocates say recommended reforms to the corrections system need to be carried out to save lives and provide treatment for offenders, rather than having jails serve as an expensive revolving door.

Gray's death under investigation

"Prisons tend to be very closed institutions and they're not particularly porous and you don't have a lot of transparency," said Kelly Hannah-Moffat, a professor of criminology and sociolegal studies at the University of Toronto. 

"That's highly problematic from a human rights standpoint," she said, noting there are many concerning aspects of the correctional system that exacerbate mental health and addictions issues and create an environment that enhances risk factors for suicide. 

Ontario's Office of the Chief Coroner is investigating Gray's death, something required for any death in custody not deemed due to "natural causes," according to the provincial Coroners Act.

But regardless of the outcome of that investigation, Hannah-Moffat said she worries about the lack of oversight of the province's correctional system and its inability to carry out reforms.

"We need to be looking at the systemic barriers to implementing changes that in some cases prevent death."

What the public also needs to consider, she said, is the cost of a corrections system that's often a revolving door for offenders. 

"It's really expensive to send people to jail," she said. "It's much less expensive to work with people in the community and provide proactive support."

Increase in deaths leads to calls for reform

Multiple recent reports have noted an increase of deaths in Ontario's correctional facilities.

A report published in January this year by Ontario's Office of the Chief Coroner outlined that deaths have risen "dramatically" from 19 deaths in 2014, to 46 in 2021. It noted that of all the deaths between 2014 to 2021, about 24 per cent (a total of 45) were deemed suicides.

The report does not include deaths in federally run prisons in Ontario.

"[Inmates] have every reason to expect that those who assume control over so many aspects of their lives will at minimum protect them from harm," the report stated. 

"Any failure to deliver on these basic promises undermines the confidence of every citizen of Ontario."

The report also showed the vast majority of deaths in custody are people on remand, meaning they're awaiting trial. In 2020, 91 per cent of deaths were from this group.

It provided 18 recommendations to prevent deaths in custody, including setting up an advisory committee that will meet on an "ongoing basis" to review multiple elements of how corrections functions.

The Ministry of the Solicitor General (SOLGEN), formerly known as the Ministry of Community Safety and Correctional services, which is responsible for jails, correctional and detention centres in the province, said in a statement to CBC Toronto that it is "committed to ensuring Ontario's adult correctional system is safe." 

All inmates undergo a suicide risk screening to see if they require further support and staff are trained on suicide awareness and prevention, said Brent Ross, a SOLGEN spokesperson.

He said those identified as having "issues with substance use" at the time of admission are provided with "targeted health-care support."

Ross also noted that Ontario is investing "more than $500 million" to "modernize correctional services" through new hires and infrastructure improvements. That will include social workers, nurse practitioners and addictions counselors.

The ministry did not answer questions about what specific suicide prevention policies and procedures are used.

Pierre Poilievre went to Charlottetown last week and stood in front of a gas station sign to restate his opposition to a pair of federal climate policies: the national price on carbon and new clean fuel regulations.

After gesturing at the price of unleaded gasoline displayed behind him, the Conservative leader said he understood the "affordability crisis" that Islanders were "suffering" through after "eight years of Trudeau."

Poilievre is adept at conveying ire but he still lacks a plan for reducing Canada's greenhouse gas emissions — a significant policy gap at a time when large parts of the country are on fire. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals will also argue that regulators and governments in the Atlantic provinces have unjustifiably allowed oil companies to pass the cost of climate action on to consumers.

But Trudeau, who arrives in Charlottetown on Monday, should understand the potency of Poilievre's economic message. It's not a far cry from what the prime minister himself was saying a decade ago.

"Those who think the middle class is thriving in this country should spend more time with their fellow citizens," Trudeau wrote in October 2012, shortly after launching his bid for the Liberal leadership. "[The] squeezing of the Canadian middle class does not need to be explained to those who live it every day."

If there's one simple explanation for where the Liberals find themselves in the summer of 2023 — trailing by several points in the latest spate of opinion polls — it might be this current moment of "squeezing." The Trudeau government's re-election hopes may depend to a large extent on whether it can recapture the promise of economic security implicit in the "middle class" message that brought it to power in 2015.

Trudeau and his ministers are visiting the Cradle of Confederation this week for a cabinet retreat — the traditional late summer confab to prepare the government's fall agenda. They're meeting three weeks after a cabinet shuffle that was meant, at least in part, to bolster the government's economic team.

Over three days of discussions, cabinet is expected to take part in sessions focused on housing and the challenges faced by young people —particularly those 20- and 30-somethings worried about both the cost of housing and the future of a changing economy and climate. During the session on housing, ministers will hear from two of the authors of a recent report on how the federal government can boost the availability of rental properties.

There's a lot to talk about.

According to a survey conducted by Abacus Data in July, the rising cost of living is far and away the top concern for Canadians, while housing affordability now rivals health care as a priority. Recent data from Environics also shows that Canadians are markedly more worried about household debt than they were a decade ago — with the biggest spike in debt anxiety reported among those aged 18 to 44.

While Canadians fret, the Liberals seem to be struggling to get a hearing. According to Abacus, many Canadians believe government spending is a major driver of inflation (a central premise of Poilievre's argument). Just 13 per cent of respondents understand that inflation is lower in Canada than in other G7 countries; 52 per cent of Canadians believe, incorrectly, that inflation is higher here.

Even with younger voters — a traditional source of support for Trudeau — the Liberals are struggling. Abacus has found that among Gen Z voters (those born between 1997 and 2005), the Liberals trail the Conservatives by four points. Among millennials (those born between 1980 and 1996), the Liberals trail by 11 points.

With up to two years remaining until the next federal election, it would be silly to draw conclusions now about the fate of Trudeau's government. But clearly, the Liberals have work to do if they want their government to survive past 2025. And to understand how crucial that work might be, the Liberals only have to remember what brought them to power in the first place.

Trudeau's middle class economics

From the start, Trudeau's rhetorical and policy focus on the "middle class and those working hard to to join it" was widely debated and often derided. Poilievre openly mocked it again last week during an "axe the tax" rally he held after visiting that gas station.

"The famous middle class — remember Justin Trudeau was going to do everything for the middle class?" he scoffed.

But both the message and the policy agenda that supported it were effective. Internal Liberal polling in 2015 found that Trudeau still trailed Stephen Harper when voters were asked which party leader would best manage the economy. But when voters were asked who would do the most for the middle class, Trudeau was the overwhelming choice.

While Trudeau's Liberals came to office with a number of priorities in mind — reconciliation, climate change, political reform, diversity and inclusion, gender equality — it was the idea of helping the middle class that acted as the spine of the Liberal platform, holding everything together.

Critics tended to get caught up in the wording, but the rhetorical construct of the "middle class" was really about economic equality, security and comfort. And it was a powerful factor in getting a progressive government elected. Notably, Joe Biden's Democrats are currently pursuing the same focus as they attempt to win what might be one of the most consequential elections in American history.

The squeeze is on, again

In that op-ed from October 2012, Trudeau stressed the importance of the promise of "upward mobility" and "economic opportunity." He wrote that the wealthiest were enjoying a disproportionate share of the benefits of economic growth, while middle class households were dealing with "unprecedented" levels of personal debt, stagnating wages and "an increasingly inaccessible housing market, especially in cities like Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver."

A decade later, the Liberals can point to a number of things they've done in office to deal with the insecurity and inequality that Trudeau identified. But they can't claim to have solved all the problems Trudeau wrote of in 2012 (if anything, the housing market is in worse shape). New sources of economic stress — inflation, higher interest rates — have emerged.

Even as parts of the country continue to burn, the high cost of groceries and mortgage payments is impossible to ignore. And just as economic security held the Liberal offer together in 2015, it now threatens to undermine everything the Liberals wish to champion.

In 2012, Trudeau warned of consequences if governments fail to address the basic economic concerns of the middle class. He seemed even to anticipate the wave of populism that would soon sweep over countries like the United States and the U.K.

"If we do not attend to this problem," he wrote, "we should not be surprised to see the middle class question the policies, and the very system, that values and encourages growth."

As an explanation for the origin and power of modern populism, the theory of "economic anxiety" leaves much to be desired. But if Trudeau and his ministers can't win the argument on economic security this time, they could find themselves replaced by a very different kind of government.

Officials say the fire burning near Yellowknife is now "highly unlikely" to reach the outskirts of the city until at least Wednesday, while the city's mayor is repeating calls for the few who remain to evacuate and for those who have left not to return.

"If you have a vehicle, please drive out," or plan to book a flight, Mayor Rebecca Alty said Monday. "Today, the fire is still a threat and we don't have a date for when folks can come back."

Over the weekend, the fire was expected to move four to five kilometres toward Yellowknife. It's currently about 15 kilometres away from city limits.

Mike Westwick, fire information officer for the N.W.T. government, said the fire moved between 100 and 200 metres closer to the city, but lighter winds than expected and successful firefighting efforts have kept the fire at bay.

Significant rain also dampened the blaze that has forced the evacuation of about 20,000 residents in Yellowknife, Ndilǫ and Dettah, with about 4.7 millimeters falling on the fire itself and 10 millimetres falling in the city. 

"It's almost a frustrating amount of rain, because you'd want more to keep the situation at bay in the long term," Westwick told Trailbreaker host Hilary Bird Monday morning. 

Alty said the amount of preparation that's gone into establishing the "really strong" firebreak around the city has been effective, but risks remain despite recent rains.

"Yellowknife is still under a threat," Alty said. "Yes, we had some rain and every little bit counts … just because it rains in Yellowknife … doesn't mean that it necessarily has impacted the fire."

Still, that rain "has opened new opportunities for managing this fire," reads the latest update from N.W.T. Fire. 

While winds were expected to push the fire back onto itself on Monday, Westwick said hot, dry temperatures were expected to return for the rest of the week — renewing the risk to the city. 

"Even as fire activity has been dampened by rain, there remains threat to the capital region due to the deep-burning fire which exists along a huge section of line and is currently being held down by weather conditions," reads the update. 

Westwick explained that crews have been scanning the fire with infrared equipment to determine hot spots and there's still about 40 kilometres of "hot line." 

With current conditions, crews will be able to attack the fire directly in the coming days. They also continue to build more than 10 kilometres of control lines to the west of the city and are considering controlled burns to further prevent any fire growth. 

The fire's burn area was last mapped at about 167,000 hectares. 

Four fires threatening capital area

Four separate fires are threatening the Yellowknife area. The largest is between Behchokǫ̀ and Yellowknife, along Highway 3.

A second has been burning north of the Ingraham Trail. While the latest update from N.W.T. Fire states that this fire is unlikely to reach the Ingraham Trail in the next three days, it is currently the "most active" of the four. 

"Infrared scanning indicated significant hot areas along the southern perimeter of the fire," it reads. 

So far, this fire has burned three structures and was last mapped at 50,200 hectares. 

A third fire has moved to 29 kilometres southeast of Dettah. 

The update from N.W.T. Fire stated that controlled burns in the area were "delayed for the time being." 

The agency said crews have prepared a control line from Great Slave Lake to Jennejohn Lake and are now "ready to execute when the right opportunity presents to head off the northward and westward growth toward the Ingraham Trail and Dettah should this become necessary."  

This fire's burn area was last mapped at 49,500 hectares. 

Finally, the fourth fire is 43 kilometres north of Yellowknife and nine kilometres west of Duncan lake. 

This is the smallest of the four and was last mapped at 17,300 hectares. For now crews are monitoring the burn without any active firefighting efforts.

'Not safe to return'

Alty said late last week about 1,600 people remained in Yellowknife, though several caught flights out over the weekend.

Apart from the roughly 1,000 essential workers still there, she urged anyone still in the city to make plans to get out.

Those who don't have a way of driving out can head to Sir John Franklin High School any time between 9 a.m. and 9 p.m. to register for a flight, Alty said Monday.

She said there are limited resources on the ground — including access to health care services in the event of an emergency — for those still in Yellowknife.

"Please stay safe," she said. "It's not safe to return and we'll be sure to communicate once it is."

Officials say more than 19,000 people have left the city to date, with residents mostly heading to accommodations and evacuation centres in Alberta and Manitoba.

An estimated 2,600 people are still in the capital, including 1,600 who are considered non-essential workers.

The mayor of Yellowknife, Rebecca Alty, has encouraged those still in the city to leave, in part so first responders can "focus on the threat at hand and not trying to get people out of the way of the danger."

Nelson has worked at the local Co-op for 20 years, which is as long as he's lived in Yellowknife, moving between nearly every department to eventually becoming general manager, a position he has held for about eight years. He described the past few work days as being out of the ordinary.

"It's odd, right," Nelson said.

"There's no traffic on the road, there's nobody around when you go home, so it's kind of weird and eerie. But the people that are here, there's still a lot of Yellowknifers here. And, of course, essential workers that have flown up from all over Canada."

A CITY ACCUSTOMED TO WILDFIRES

As a remote city in Northern Canada, residents are accustomed to wildfires.

The smoke this wildfire season has been particularly bad though, Nelson said, reminding him of the summer of 2014 when fires burned nearly 34,000 square kilometres of boreal forest in the territory, an area slightly larger than Vancouver Island.

Even then, he said, the fires have always been distant. But this summer they're proving to be "a little too close for comfort."

An air quality statement remained in effect for the Yellowknife region on Sunday because of the smoke, while the air quality health index fluctuated from "low risk" overnight to "very high risk" heading into Sunday morning. By early afternoon, the index fell again to "low risk."

'WE'RE ALL TRYING TO LOOK OUT FOR ONE ANOTHER'

The Yellowknife Co-op, which includes a gas bar and grocery store, typically has 160 people on staff. The store's pharmacy is closed for the time being, but Nelson said another one in town is open.

As it stands, Nelson said there is a skeleton crew of eight people who are helping to run the store, including his wife, who isn't an employee, and other volunteers.

"Yellowknife is a pretty close-knit community and we're all trying to look out for one another," he said. "People are coming, pitching in, helping out with us."

With hundreds of people leaving by plane, many others also left by vehicle — using the only major roadway in or out of the city — leading to long lineups at gas stations as people waited to fuel up.

That proved to be a "real nail-biter at times" for the Co-op, Nelson said, with lines out to the road and fuel supplies reaching "emergency" levels.

Luckily, he said the company that hauls fuel for them was able to bring in three tankers' worth.

"We're doing a lot of things that we don't typically do in a day, so we're really hoping that this is over soon and we can welcome back everybody to Yellowknife," Nelson said.

Thousands of Yellowknife residents joined road convoys and stood with packed bags in snaking lines at the airport to flee a looming wildfire approaching the capital of the Northwest Territories. Baby supplies are seen ready for pickup as volunteers prepare for Yellowknife evacuees fleeing a wildfire threatening the territorial capital, in Valleyview, Alta., Aug. 17, 2023. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson

'NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET': EVACUATION ORDERS COULD LAST FEW MORE WEEKS

The Northwest Territories government has pointed to slightly cooler weather than forecast, a bit of rain and successful firefighting efforts for helping to prevent the fire near Yellowknife — currently about 1,700 square kilometres in size — from moving closer to the city.

Officials now say that it is "highly unlikely" the fire will reach the outskirts of Yellowknife by the end of the weekend.

"Our fire crews have been working very hard — the city, private industry — working on firebreaks and that, so it's been a very collaborative approach," Shane Thompson, minister of municipal and community affairs for the Northwest Territories, told CTV News Channel on Sunday.

"The military has been very helpful as well, so I would say we're making some progress, but again, we're not out of the woods yet."

In an update Sunday evening, a spokesperson for the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) said another company of Army soldiers was deployed to Hay River, N.W.T., for firefighting support, specifically to build firebreaks around the community, as well as Yellowknife. Two divisions from Quebec have also been on the ground providing firefighting support.

There are now about 400 military members in the Northwest Territories, an increase from the more than 200 who had been sent in to assist as of Saturday.

Personnel from the Royal Canadian Air Force are also available for potential evacuations, while about another 100 members from Joint Task Force North, which is responsible for leading the CAF's continental operations in the North, are in Yellowknife supporting the deployed soldiers.

The military, as of Saturday, had transported approximately 260 people out of the Northwest Territories, including 100 from Fort Smith and Hay River who were brought to Fort McMurray, Alta., and about another 160 people who were taken to Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver.

Warmer weather in the 20s and westerly winds are expected Sunday and could lead to "significant drying," the latest wildfire update from the territory said.

There is also a chance of thunderstorms, which could bring about one or two millimetres of rain and potentially new fires due to lightning.

Thompson said he is asking for patience from the residents of Yellowknife, as well as other communities with evacuation orders in place such as Hay River, Fort Smith and Enterprise, with the latter seeing many homes and vehicles destroyed already.

"We still need to be prepared to (wait) a little bit longer, I would say at least two weeks, maybe three, depending on the situation," Thompson said.

'SUCH A BEAUTIFUL PLACE': RESIDENTS WORRIED ABOUT CITY TURNING TO RUINS

Nelson said the Co-op has reached out to the staff who have left to find out where they are, how long they'll be there and to reassure them that nothing will happen to their pay. A Facebook page also has been set up for the workers.

"There's stress here in town, but these people had to leave everything behind and get out of town right away and now they're in different locations across Canada," Nelson said.

"Some flew, some drove, but there's a lot of uncertainty about what's going on and when am I going to get back and what am I going to get back to."

While Sunday started out quite beautiful in Yellowknife, Nelson said, "In the back of my mind, it's kind of the eye of the storm right now."

"Yellowknife is such a beautiful place," he added, "and all the trees around Yellowknife, it makes Yellowknife special. And just to think that we could lose all that is going to be devastating for everybody that lives there."