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Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 533

 Here is the situation on Thursday, August 10, 2023.


Rescuers work at the site of a building destroyed during a Russian missile attack in Pokrovsk, Donetsk region, Ukraine, on August 7, 2023 [Press service of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine/Handout via Reuters]

Fighting

  • Two people were killed and seven wounded in an apparent Russian missile attack on the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, according to Ukrainian officials. A video posted by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy showed smoke billowing from burning and badly damaged buildings next to a church.
  • In Russian-controlled Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, a child was killed and two people wounded when a Ukrainian artillery shell hit a two-storey building, according to a Moscow-installed official.
  • The Russian defence ministry said its forces shot down two Ukrainian drones near the capital, Moscow. One was brought down near the southern Domodedovo district, where one of Russia’s biggest international airports is located, and another near the Minsk motorway, the city’s mayor said.
  • Officials reported an explosion on the grounds of a factory that makes optical equipment for Russia’s security forces north of Moscow. They did not provide a suspected cause of the blast, which killed one person, wounded 60 others and left at least eight people unaccounted for.
  • In the Russian border region of Belgorod, Ukrainian shelling killed one person and wounded four others, the region’s governor said.
  • Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said Moscow will build up forces at its western borders following Finland’s accession to NATO. He told the governing board of the defence ministry that the entry of Finland into NATO and the future entry of Sweden was “a serious destabilising factor”.
  • Poland announced it will send 2,000 troops to its border with Belarus to stem illegal crossings and maintain stability. Warsaw has become increasingly worried about the border area since hundreds of battle-hardened Wagner mercenaries arrived in Belarus last month.
  • Germany announced the arrest of a German national working for the military on suspicion of spying for Russia.

Military aid

  • The US plans to provide Ukraine with $200m in weapons and ammunition to help sustain Kyiv’s counteroffensive, the Associated Press news agency reported, citing two officials. This latest package will include missiles for the High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and the Patriot air defence system, munitions for howitzers and tanks, Javelin rockets, mine-clearing equipment, 12 million rounds of small arms ammunition and demolition munitions, the agency reported.
  • A European country has bought dozens of second-hand Leopard 1 tanks that once belonged to Belgium and is preparing to hand them over to Ukraine, according to the arms trader who did the deal. Freddy Versluys, CEO of defence company OIP Land Systems, who bought the 50 tanks from the Belgian government five years ago, told the Reuters news agency he could not name the buyer due to a confidentiality clause.
  • Sanctions

    • The United States and Canada issued new sanctions against Belarus, designating several entities and individuals over alleged human rights abuses and support for Russia amid the war in Ukraine.

    Economy

    • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the revival of a deal with Russia to allow Ukrainian grain exports from Black Sea ports “depends on Western countries, which must keep their promises”.
    • The Russian central bank said it will begin piloting its digital rouble with consumers on August 15 after a lengthy testing phase with banks. The move comes as Moscow looks to widen the scope of its cross-border payments.
    • Finnish utility company Fortum said it still hopes to sell its Russian assets and get compensation for their seizure by the Kremlin via arbitration. The firm is one of a handful of companies with assets placed under “temporary control” by Moscow in response to the European Union’s sanctions over Russia’s war in Ukraine, which prompted over a thousand Western firms to exit Russia.

Russia says 13 Ukrainian drones downed on way to attack Sevastopol, Moscow

 Drone attacks deep inside Russian territory have increased since a drone was destroyed over the Kremlin in early May.


Members of the Russian security services investigate a damaged office building in Moscow, Russia, following a reported Ukrainian drone attack on August 1, 2023 [File: Evgenia Novozhenina/Reuters]

Russian forces took down more than a dozen Ukrainian drones flying towards the capital Moscow and the city of Sevastopol in the annexed Crimean peninsula, according to the country’s defence ministry.

The attack on Moscow on Thursday is the latest in a series of Ukrainian drone raids deep inside Russian territory.

The defence ministry said in a statement that two drones “flying in the direction of the city of Moscow were destroyed”, while 11 others were brought down near the city of Sevastopol.

Two of the Ukrainian drones were “hit by on-duty anti-aircraft defence equipment, another nine were suppressed by means of electronic warfare and crashed in the Black Sea before reaching the target”, the ministry said of the attack.

There was no immediate comment from Ukraine.

Thursday’s reported drone raid comes a day after Russia said it had shot down two Ukrainian combat drones that were deployed to attack Moscow, one near a major airport to the south of the Russian capital and one to the west of the city.

Ukrainian air attacks inside Russia have increased since the first reported drone attack against the Kremlin was averted in early May.

Civilian areas of the city were the focus of drone attacks later in May and a Moscow business district was targeted twice in three days earlier this month.

The New York Times reported in May that United States intelligence agencies believe Ukrainian spies or military intelligence were behind the initial drone strike on the Kremlin.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned last month that “war” was coming to Russia, with the country’s “symbolic centres and military bases” becoming targets.

Russia has also launched thousands of long-range drone strikes on Ukraine throughout the war, often striking civilian targets far from the front lines.

Russian drones destroyed a fuel depot in Ukraine’s western Rivne region on Thursday, regional governor Vitaliy Koval wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

There were no casualties from the attack, he said.

Which criminal case may be hardest for Trump to win?

 

Three indictments, 78 charges, three trials. What might Donald Trump's defence be in court and which of the three cases will be hardest for him to win?

The former president stands accused of a litany of crimes. Conspiring to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Undermining Americans' right to vote.

Hoarding classified documents at two of his properties. Using fraudulent means to pay off an adult film actress in the heat of the 2016 race.

He faces nearly 80 counts in three states and possibly more if, as expected, he is indicted for election interference in Georgia.

We have seen the prosecution's case as laid out in the indictments but what do we know of how Mr Trump - who denies any wrongdoing - will defend himself at the trials next year?


A slam-dunk - or is it?

The most interesting dynamic is found in the Florida classified documents case, legal experts tell the BBC.

"While it's probably the strongest case legally - it is absolutely airtight - the jury pool might be favourable enough that Donald Trump will be able to essentially get a juror or a handful of jurors to nullify and get him out of it," said Anthony Michael Kries, a professor of election and employment law at Georgia State University.

The Department of Justice has accused Mr Trump of illegally taking classified White House materials after he left office, storing them improperly at his Mar-a-Lago estate and then obstructing the government's repeated attempts to retrieve the documents.

US law requires departing presidents to hand over such materials to the National Archives. There is a tried and tested law governing the possession of classified material and plenty examples of case law to draw on. Other ex-officeholders, such as former Vice-President Mike Pence, have returned such documents as soon as they found them.

The indictment lays out reams of evidence against Mr Trump, including photos of boxes stored haphazardly at his Florida home. Prosecutors even obtained audio of Mr Trump talking about a classified document in front of people without proper clearance, and admitting he could not declassify the material now that he had left office.

Mr Trump has inaccurately claimed in public that he could have declassified the documents. He pleaded not guilty at his arraignment in Miami in June and has called the prosecution politically motivated.

But he could find favour in the state's jury pool. Mr Trump is loved and loathed equally in southern Florida and legal experts based there say choosing an impartial jury could prove challenging.

"The added element is people with agendas," Rob Mendell, a Florida trial attorney, told the BBC in June.


A more shaky case

The first case Mr Trump faced this year may prove the most straightforward for him to win.

In March, New York prosecutors issued 34 felony charges of falsifying business records. These relate to a $130,000 hush money payment Mr Trump's lawyer made to an adult film star in the final weeks of the 2016 election campaign.

The cash was to stop her talking about an alleged affair, a relationship denied by the former president. Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg alleges that Mr Trump funnelled the payment through his lawyer, Michael Cohen, and fraudulently recorded the payments as legal expenses.

  • What happened between Stormy Daniels and Trump?

Ordinarily, falsifying business records would only amount to a misdemeanour. But if they were falsified to commit another crime, that could constitute a felony. Mr Bragg does not necessarily need to prove Mr Trump committed one to secure a felony conviction. He has not yet definitively said what his full theory of the additional crimes are.

But he alleged during an April press conference that Mr Trump made the payments "to cover up crimes relating to the 2016 election", and committed a tax violation. Mr Trump's team has made moves to change the jurisdiction from state to federal court and may attempt to have the charges dismissed. They have previously argued that Mr Trump made the payments to save his family from embarrassment, not commit a crime.

A July decision by a federal judge to deny Mr Trump's attempt to move the trial to federal court was "a 100% victory for us", Mr Bragg told local radio station WCBS this week. The federal judge also signalled support for the district attorney's attempt to raise the crimes to a felony.

'The hardest case to beat'

Last week, the Justice Department charged Mr Trump on four counts related to election fraud. It's an unprecedented case, involving a president allegedly trying to use the levers of government to cling on to power.

He is accused of pressuring election officials and the vice-president to change the outcome of the 2020 election, which he lost to Joe Biden. He also stands accused of widely spreading disinformation that the election was stolen, which ultimately led to the US Capitol riot.

  • What happened on 6 January at the Capitol riot?

Some legal experts think the litany of evidence, the unsympathetic jurisdiction of Washington DC, and the way Special Counsel Jack Smith constructed the case all mean it's an uphill battle for Mr Trump.

"The election violation in DC - I think that is a legal slam dunk," said Mr Kreis. "I think that might be the hardest [for Trump] to beat."

One crucial factor Mr Trump can fight against is the issue of intent, whether or not he actually planned to commit these crimes. Prosecutors will have to show that Mr Trump knowingly made false claims in the service of committing crimes.

"The person has to know that it's false, and then purposely, intentionally make the statement, for the purpose of influencing government activity," said Morgan Cloud, a professor at Emory University Law School.


That is the key, adds Mr Kreis. "Did Donald Trump honestly believe and honestly come by his understanding that the election was fraudulent and that he had actually won?"

Mr Smith went to great pains in the indictment to show multiple moments where top aides and allies warned Mr Trump that the election interference claims were bogus, yet he proceeded anyway.

  • Who is the hard-line judge on Trump's election case?
  • Why these charges are most serious yet for Trump

His lawyer John Lauro said the former president believed "in his heart of hearts" that he won the election and the prosecution will not be able to prove otherwise. His client was being attacked for exercising his First Amendment right to free speech, he added, and his requests to election officials were just "aspirational".

There is a strong chance, however, that Mr Trump cannot rely on a free speech argument. Some of what he said might be protected by the First Amendment, said Aziz Huq of the University of Chicago Law School. But, he added, "speech that is used to facilitate the crime is almost never covered".



Mr Smith made this point in the indictment, that while Mr Trump could freely say what he liked about the election outcome, he could not use that belief to try to overturn the result.

But not everyone believes the case will result in a conviction.

Sarah Isgur, legal commentator at conservative website The Despatch, told the Economist the statutes under which these counts were brought require proof of intent. This means the fact that people were telling him his claims were untrue is not enough, she said.

Mr Trump can also point to lawyers like John Eastman and others who were telling him his claims were correct, she added.

The wildcard - juries

Regardless of how both sides argue the case, they must convince a jury. And it is this variable that legal experts say is most difficult to predict.

Four different jurisdictions at play - Washington DC, Florida, Manhattan and potentially Georgia - will result in four very different jury dynamics.

The threshold for a conviction is beyond reasonable doubt and decisions must be unanimous, two factors in Mr Trump's favour.

"That's certainly going to make Trump's case easier," says Mr Kreis. "He doesn't need to convince 12 people… they only need one person."

The other big variable is Mr Trump himself.

In theory he could delay any convictions by appeal, win the presidency, and press the Department of Justice to drop its investigations.

Or even, as he has reportedly mused in the past, pardon himself.

China assures Russia it remains ‘impartial’ on Ukraine war after attending Saudi peace talks

 China’s top diplomat Wang Yi told his Russian counterpart that Beijing remains “impartial” on the war in Ukraine, a day after a Chinese delegation participated in international talks on ending the conflict that included Kyiv, but not Moscow.



In a call Monday, Wang stressed to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that China and Russia are “trustworthy and reliable good friends and partners.”

“On the Ukraine crisis, China will uphold an independent and impartial position, sound an objective and rational voice, actively promote peace talks, and strive to seek a political solution on any international multilateral occasion,” Wang said, according to a readout of the call released by China’s Foreign Ministry.

The call followed two-day talks hosted by Saudi Arabia, where around 40 nations including key Ukraine allies the United States, Britain and Germany, as well as India and a number of Middle Eastern nations, met to discuss the resolution of the conflict, nearly 18 months since Moscow’s invasion began.

The group agreed on the importance of international dialogue to find “common ground that will pave the way for peace,” according to official Saudi media.

Lavrov “appreciates and welcomes the constructive role played by China” toward a political resolution of the “Ukraine crisis,” China’s Foreign Ministry said in their readout of Monday’s call.

A role for China in peace-making?

Ahead of the talks in Jeddah, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called China’s participation “a super breakthrough and a historic victory.”

Ukraine and its Western allies have long expressed hope that China and its leader Xi Jinping, a self-described friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin, could play a role in pushing Moscow toward peace.

Both Xi and Putin see the other as a critical partner in reshaping what they see as an American-led world order hostile to their aims.

China has continued to bolster its economic, diplomatic, and security ties with Russia, despite Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, which Beijing has never condemned.

It did not send a delegation to previous international talks in Denmark in June, despite attempting to position itself as a potential peace broker on the conflict in recent months.

China’s participation in the Jeddah talks comes as the country has strengthened its ties with Saudi Arabia, and has been ramping up efforts to rekindle its relationship with key economic partners in Europe amid economic woes and ongoing friction with Washington.

Beijing’s reputation in Europe has been significantly damaged by its support of Russia.

China’s special envoy on Eurasian Affairs Li Hui, who led the delegation, “had extensive contact and communication with all parties on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis … listened to all sides’ opinions and proposals, and further consolidated international consensus,” China’s foreign ministry said in a statement to CNN.

China’s participation in the talks did not appear to alter its own stance on the conflict, however.

Beijing would continue to strengthen dialogue based on its 12-point position on a political settlement to the crisis, the ministry said in their statement.

That proposal, which Beijing put forward earlier this year, calls for peace talks to end the conflict. But it departs significantly from Ukraine’s own vision for peace in that it urges a ceasefire without also calling for the withdrawal of Russian troops – an outcome critics say would help Moscow consolidate its illegal wartime gains.

Ukraine and Russia remain publicly committed to prerequisites for direct negotiations that the other side finds unacceptable.

‘Work closely and strategically’

China’s proposal was also discussed during the Monday call between Wang and Lavrov, according to the Chinese foreign ministry, with its readout quoting Lavrov as saying Russia “highly endorses” it.

The conversation also emphasized their alignment in the international arena more broadly, with Wang calling for both sides to “work closely and strategically” to promote a “multi-polar world” and “democratization of international relations” – terms used to express their shared vision for a world order where Western nations hold less sway.

An official Russian account of the call published by state-run news agency Tass said the two “once again confirmed unanimity or broad consonance of Moscow and Beijing’s approaches to world affairs.”

“They noted their rejection of the Western bloc’s confrontational policy toward Russia and China, its attempts to contain their development by means of sanctions and other illegitimate methods,” Tass said.

The call was also the first between the two since Wang was reappointed China’s foreign minister following the shock ouster of his successor Qin Gang, who was suddenly replaced without explanation in late July after only six months in the role.

Wang was previously foreign minister for roughly a decade before being promoted to lead the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s foreign affairs arm late last year. He now holds both posts.

Lavrov congratulated his Chinese counterpart on his appointment and “wished him great success in his new demanding role,” Tass said.



Afghan central bank lacks independence from Taliban: US watchdog

 It lacked independence from the Taliban, had deficiencies in anti-money laundering and countering ‘terrorism’ financing.





A US-funded assessment of Afghanistan’s central bank found that it lacks independence from the Taliban administration and adequate safeguards against money laundering and terrorism financing, a US watchdog has told the US Congress.

The US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), in a quarterly report to Congress on Tuesday, disclosed that the assessment found flaws with the management of the central bank, known as Da Afghanistan Bank, or DAB.


The DAB “lacked independence from the Taliban regime and had deficiencies in anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism”, SIGAR said the assessment showed.

The US Agency for International Development funded the review by an outside contractor.

The finding that DAB lacks independence from the Taliban, which returned to power after the August 2021 US troop pullout, apparently referred to the three Taliban officials who oversee the bank and are under US and UN sanctions.

Concerns in Washington and other capitals about the bank’s leadership and anti-money laundering safeguards are at the heart of a standoff over the Taliban’s demand for the return of DAB cash frozen in other countries since their takeover.


Half of about $7bn frozen in the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York was placed in the Swiss-based trust fund. The rest is being sought in lawsuits against the Taliban brought by families of victims of the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States. The Taliban harboured al-Qaeda fighters who plotted the attacks.

A US Treasury official told the Reuters news agency last month on condition of anonymity that Washington will not support a return to DAB of Swiss-based trust fund assets until the bank shows it is free “from political influence and interference.”

It also must demonstrate “adequate” controls against money laundering and terrorism financing, the official said.